With Bitcoin recently experiencing its second halving, again without any substantial effect on the cryptocurrency’s price, the effects of the development initially seem restricted to further limiting the return on mining, as well as an overall strengthening of the currency itself.
However, in this interview with news outlet Jaxenter, Henry Brade, CEO of Finnish Bitcoin startup Prasos Oy, predicts long-lasting effects.
He cites the possibility of bitcoin price increases in the mid-term, as well as even higher trading volumes and more volatility later on this year, resulting in what he expects to be “a very exciting year for Bitcoin.”
The term “halving” refers to a fall in the amount of bitcoin that will be released during the mining process, gradually decreasing the overall output until the end sum of 21 million coins is reached at the end of the mining cycle sometime in the future. Initially, every miner whose computer was able to “discover” a valid block in the mining chain was rewarded with 50 BTC. In 2012, this number fell to 25 BTC per block, and the most recent halving cut that number to 12.5 BTC. This process is set to continue every 210,000 blocks until the mining cycle comes to an end.
Predictably, such developments have the potential to be a massive concern to those for whom mining is a very profitable endeavor. While there have been reports of miners being forced to stop their operations due to an upcoming halving, the set-in-stone predictability of the process would appear to explain the negligible effect on price the two halvings so far have had. Miners simply seem to have done their homework and prepared accordingly. Another explanation looks to the halving that has taken place at competitor Litecoin. Charlie Lee, Director of Engineering at Coinbase, and Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto have cited extremely low energy costs at mining facilities in China as another reason halving could have little to no effect on mining operations.
Nevertheless, Brade predicts that the decrease in supply will still have an upward effect on the price of bitcoins. He mentions his own company’s experiences, with exchange services seeing all-time high trading volumes in June. Furthermore, each halving arguably provides further evidence of Bitcoin’s resilience. Still, others have been more doubtful as to how reliably the halving’s effects can be measured at all, with Andreas Antonopoulos, author of Mastering Bitcoin, claiming that no one can predict Bitcoin price developments. He states that too many other parameters are involved, suggesting that the only thing the cryptocurrency community can do is wait.
Braden, however, is decisively more optimistic. He considers the Bitcoin halving process to be very positive, calling it “a testament to the greatness of cryptocurrency,” as it can do without central entities that influence currencies’ values based on political concerns or those otherwise outside of the realm of the currency itself. For him, the rules of Bitcoin are “completely transparent and predictable, which is good,” adding that this is the opposite of what happens to regular currencies. For this reason, he considers it the world’s first universal currency.
In essence, every halving vindicates those who have defended Bitcoin against the hefty criticism and skeptic eye of the more traditional economy, as it presents the opportunity for the currency to show that it is merely going through its own predetermined motions. With miners shouldering the brunt of the burden, traders are free to continue business as usual.